Report "Big Ideas 2026"

The "Big Ideas 2026" report by ARK Invest represents the tenth annual edition of their flagship research document, which identifies and contextualizes the technologies reshaping the global economy. The core thesis is that exponential innovations, driven by artificial intelligence (AI), are accelerating a technology investment cycle that could be the largest in history. 

The report explores 13 "Big Ideas" spanning sectors such as AI, robotics, energy, blockchain, space, and biology. These technologies are not isolated, but intersect, creating synergies that enhance capital allocation and productivity. In particular, public blockchains – including Bitcoin, tokenized assets, and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications – are presented as key platforms for digital scarcity, proof of ownership, and the reconfiguration of financial ecosystems. These integrate with AI to coordinate resources and create global monetary ecosystems. 

The overall outlook is optimistic:
converging innovations could generate macroeconomic acceleration, with a focus on how emerging technologies outperform conventional estimates. ARK emphasizes that, over the past ten years, their framework has served as a signal for anticipating exponential changes, helping investors, companies, and policymakers position themselves for the future. 

Bitcoin Thesis:
Bitcoin is described as the leader of a new institutional asset class, maturing thanks to growing adoption by ETFs, publicly listed companies, and nation-states. In 2025, U.S. ETFs and public companies held 12% of Bitcoin’s total supply, up from 8.7% in 2024, with ETF balances growing 19.7% and corporate holdings increasing 73%. Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted return (Sharpe Ratio) outperformed the broader crypto market, and drawdowns from all-time highs were more contained than in the past.

Key Projections:
ARK forecasts Bitcoin’s market capitalization to reach approximately $16 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63% starting from roughly $2 trillion in 2025. This would represent 70% of the total digital asset market, which in turn would reach $28 trillion with a 61% CAGR.

Growth Drivers:
Institutional investment (e.g., ETFs and corporate treasuries such as Metaplanet), state reserves (such as Texas and Wisconsin), and Bitcoin’s role as a store of value. Stablecoins serve as a bridge to traditional finance, while convergence with AI enables intelligent agents for resource coordination and smart contracts for global monetary ecosystems.

Challenges:
Regulatory hurdles, competitive landscape, and political pressures; volatility events such as the $19 billion leveraged position liquidation in October 2025.

Comparisons with traditional assets:
Bitcoin is compared to “digital gold,” with a potential market (TAM) of approximately $24.4 trillion by 2030 (40% penetration of gold’s market cap in the base case). It outperforms traditional reserves and cash equivalents in terms of returns and scarcity.

Tokenized Assets Thesis:
Tokenized assets involve the digitization of real-world assets (RWA) on blockchains, providing proof of ownership and composability. In 2025, the tokenized RWA market tripled to $19 billion, driven by U.S. Treasuries ($9 billion) and commodities such as tokenized gold ($3.4 billion combined for XAUT and PAXG).

Key Projections:
The global tokenized assets market will exceed $11 trillion by 2030, representing approximately 1.38% of all financial assets, with growth driven by the tokenization of sovereign debt, bank deposits, and public equities.

Growth Drivers:
Regulatory clarity (e.g., the GENIUS Act empowering stablecoin activity), institutional initiatives (such as BlackRock’s tokenization platform and JP Morgan’s tokenized funds), and convergence with stablecoins (USDC and USDT dominate 95% of volume). Stablecoin transaction volume reached $3.5 trillion in December 2025, 2.3× larger than Visa, PayPal, and remittances combined, with supply growing 50% to $307 billion.

Challenges:
Off-chain adoption barriers, regulatory risks, and the need for institutional-grade tokenization infrastructure.

Comparisons with traditional assets:
Tokenization enables 24/7 liquidity and lower costs compared to legacy systems; for example, tokenized U.S. Treasuries outperform traditional bond markets in efficiency, with Ethereum holding approximately $400 billion in assets, preferred for RWAs.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Applications Thesis:
DeFi applications are evolving networks into utilities, shifting value capture toward apps such as perpetual futures, stablecoins, and memecoins. In 2025, application revenues reached $3.8 billion, with 70 protocols generating over $1 million in monthly recurring revenue (MRR). DeFi platform assets approached those of traditional fintech, with the top 50 protocols each surpassing $1 billion in TVL (Total Value Locked).

Key Projections:
DeFi derivatives (e.g., Hyperliquid) will capture market share from centralized exchanges like Binance; Layer 1s such as Ethereum and Solana will derive 90% of valuation from monetary premiums rather than network fees.

Growth Drivers:
On-chain verticals with strong product-market fit (e.g., Hyperliquid with $800 million in revenue and fewer than 15 employees), AI integration for efficiency, and convergence with stablecoins for global ecosystems. Perpetual futures market share: Hyperliquid vs. Binance is shifting, with on-chain exchanges growing.

Challenges:
Competition from centralized finance, regulatory risks, and scalability issues. 
 
Comparisons with traditional assets:
DeFi offers superior revenue efficiency (e.g., Tether and Pump.fun surpass tech giants in revenue per employee); tokenized RWAs in DeFi provide better composability than traditional funds, with a $35 billion TAM for on-chain financial services growing at 20–60% CAGR.

Note:
These projections are based on ARK’s internal analysis and are subject to uncertainties; they do not constitute investment advice....